In my last blog, we looked into what kind of investor you are and slightly touched on some errors Link. Now it is time to see how our minds play with us and affect our decision making as well as look into judgment errors/biases. In investment management, there is traditional finance theory, which assumes that all individuals act rationally and is opposed by behaviour finance. As there is a large quantity of information available online around traditional finance and it is not very applicable in real life, we will spend most of the time talking about behavioural finance.
As you know life is not perfect, we will never be in a position where we know everything about the entity/investment or able to process all available information in the market. Our next subject is based on this idea.
Bounded rationality is looking into individuals decision making with incomplete information. When we start looking into stocks, we will need to make a huge amount of research to be comfortable with investment. However, eventually, we come to the point, where additional information does not help us to make a better investment decision, and it is entirely okay. So you have to satisfy yourself with what you have. Of course, if you feel that there is more fundamental information that needs to be researched, please, do so. Some examples could be that you have reviewed market, company fundamentals, and all directors. However, you cannot get information about inside changes in the business. If you are happy with your research and feel confident about the company’s future prospect, you can invest without knowing this additional info. The decision will not be optimal in traditional finance sense, but acceptable. You should make sure that the price is right as well and you leave some room for error, but we will speak in future blogs about stock selection. Continue reading →